Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.3194 | -0.8328 | 0.6098 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1686 | -0.5288 | 0.8204 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0433 | -0.2332 | 0.9672 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.1163 | -0.4172 | 0.8881 |
| Relative Score | A+ | -0.047 | +0.109 | +0.061 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2484 | -0.6900 | 0.7094 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2743 | -0.7418 | 0.6728 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2241 | -0.6412 | 0.7437 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.2330 | -0.6591 | 0.7312 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.047 | -0.109 | -0.061 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2839 | -0.7614 | 0.6596 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2215 | -0.6353 | 0.7466 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.1337 | -0.4372 | 0.8555 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.1747 | -0.5381 | 0.8096 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.035 |
| Manifold | F | +0.066 |
| Metaculus | A+ | -0.046 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |