Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?
  • 366
  • 964
  • $851
Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? This question considers whether the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2024 will be higher than its value on December 29, 2023. It is a widely followed indicator of the U.S. economy's health and direction. Users can reference historical data from reputable sources such as Yahoo Finance to inform their decision. The outcome of this question will determine whether the S&P 500 index rose over the specified period.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024JulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 367
  • 228
  • $851

[ACX 2024] Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0359
-0.2100
0.9738
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0202
-0.1533
0.9865
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0320
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0276
0.9996
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.001
+0.001
  • Metaculus
  • 367
  • 736

Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0192
-0.1491
0.9873
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0206
-0.1548
0.9863
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0015
-0.0393
0.9992
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0277
0.9996
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.001
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 366
  • 964
  • $851
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0275
-0.1795
0.9805
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0204
-0.1541
0.9864
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0357
0.9993
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0277
0.9996

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