Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0729 | -0.3147 | 0.9379 |
Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.0474 | -0.2456 | 0.9634 |
30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0038 | -0.0633 | 0.9979 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0173 | 0.9998 |
Relative Score | A | -0.021 | +0.045 | +0.028 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0702 | -0.3079 | 0.9407 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0747 | -0.3193 | 0.9360 |
30 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0018 | -0.0440 | 0.9990 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0009 | -0.0305 | 0.9995 |
Relative Score | D | +0.021 | -0.045 | -0.028 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0716 | -0.3113 | 0.9393 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0611 | -0.2824 | 0.9497 |
30 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0028 | -0.0536 | 0.9984 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0239 | 0.9997 |
Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
Manifold | B | -0.006 |
Polymarket | C- | +0.007 |
Kalshi | D+ | +0.010 |
Manifold | A- | -0.010 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |