Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0729 | -0.3147 | 0.9379 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0474 | -0.2456 | 0.9634 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0038 | -0.0633 | 0.9979 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0173 | 0.9998 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.021 | +0.045 | +0.028 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0702 | -0.3079 | 0.9407 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0747 | -0.3193 | 0.9360 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0018 | -0.0440 | 0.9990 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0009 | -0.0305 | 0.9995 |
| Relative Score | D | +0.021 | -0.045 | -0.028 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0716 | -0.3113 | 0.9393 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0611 | -0.2824 | 0.9497 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0028 | -0.0536 | 0.9984 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0239 | 0.9997 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | A | -0.021 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.044 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | B | -0.006 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.007 |