Will Kevin Cramer (R) win the 2024 North Dakota Senate seat?
  • 309
  • 34
  • $19,476
If Kevin Cramer (R) wins the 2024 North Dakota Senate seat, then the resolution is Yes. The markets consider the outcome of the general election, where a Republican candidate wins the Senate seat. A win by a presidential Republican candidate in the primary can also be considered a Republican win. Markets resolve once official certification and reputable news sources (Associated Press, Fox News, NBC) confirm the same winner.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityFeb2024MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $640

Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Dakota? | :: or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0016
-0.0406
0.9991
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0003
-0.0172
0.9998
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.005
-0.000
  • Manifold
  • 309
  • 3
  • $202

Which state Senate seat will be won by a Republican candidate in the 2024 election? | North Dakota

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0017
-0.0415
0.9991
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0017
-0.0415
0.9991
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0017
-0.0415
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0017
-0.0415
0.9991
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.008
+0.002
  • Polymarket
  • 209
  • 31
  • $18,634

Will a Republican win North Dakota US Senate Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0016
-0.0413
0.9991
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0028
-0.0541
0.9985
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0197
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0207
0.9998
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.008
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 309
  • 34
  • $19,476
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0016
-0.0411
0.9991
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0016
-0.0376
0.9991
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0271
0.9996
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0241
0.9996

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