Will Amy Klobuchar (D) win the 2024 Minnesota Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 196
  • $68,658
The markets cover Amy Klobuchar's (D) chances of winning the 2024 Minnesota Senate seat. The resolution criteria vary between platforms: one market resolves when major news organizations call the election, while another waits for official certification by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If a Democrat wins the popular vote on Election Day but switches parties after, the outcome won't affect the market's result. In all cases, the market will resolve to "Yes" if the winner is a Democrat, resolving to "No" otherwise. The resolution of these markets is contingent upon the official outcome of the election in Minnesota.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 279
  • 34
  • $39

Minnesota US Senate Race 2024: Amy Klobuchar vs. Royce White | Amy Klobuchar (Democratic Party)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0047
-0.0713
0.9973
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0073
-0.0894
0.9957
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0018
-0.0432
0.9990
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0343
0.9994
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.001
+0.001
  • Polymarket
  • 209
  • 162
  • $68,619

Will a Democrat win Minnesota US Senate Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0100
-0.1054
0.9939
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0061
-0.0817
0.9964
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0228
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0013
-0.0372
0.9993
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.001
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 196
  • $68,658
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0074
-0.0883
0.9956
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0067
-0.0855
0.9960
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0330
0.9994
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0357
0.9993

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