Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?
  • 1,201
  • 591
  • $22
Emmanuel Macron is the current President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra. He has served since 2017 and previously held the position of Minister of Economy from 2014 to 2016. In his last election, Macron won a landslide victory in the second round with 20,743,128 votes. This year's election is expected to follow a similar pattern. Macron will be re-elected if electoral officials report that he has been declared the winner following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2019JulOctJan2020AprJulOctJan2021AprJulOctJan2022Apr

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 9
  • 9
  • $22

Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the 2022 Presidential Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0093
-0.1016
0.9943
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0114
-0.1130
0.9929
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0202
-0.1532
0.9866
Relative Score
A-
-0.016
+0.060
+0.013
  • Metaculus
  • 1,201
  • 582

Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2119
-0.6168
0.7608
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2107
-0.6143
0.7625
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0119
-0.1155
0.9926
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0446
-0.2371
0.9660
Relative Score
D
+0.016
-0.060
-0.013
  • Overall
  • 1,201
  • 591
  • $22
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.1106
-0.3592
0.8776
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.1110
-0.3637
0.8777
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0119
-0.1155
0.9926
7 Days Before Close
B-
0.0324
-0.1952
0.9763

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