Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0235 | 0.9997 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0235 | 0.9997 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0230 | 0.9997 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0230 | 0.9997 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.002 | +0.016 | +0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0056 | -0.0780 | 0.9967 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0027 | -0.0537 | 0.9985 |
| 30 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0097 | 1.0000 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.016 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0031 | -0.0507 | 0.9982 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0016 | -0.0386 | 0.9991 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0164 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0165 | 0.9998 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C | +0.002 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |