Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0011 | -0.0336 | 0.9994 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0021 | -0.0469 | 0.9988 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0029 | -0.0551 | 0.9984 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0029 | -0.0551 | 0.9984 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | +0.008 | +0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0030 | -0.0566 | 0.9983 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0039 | -0.0641 | 0.9978 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0211 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0248 | 0.9997 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.008 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0021 | -0.0451 | 0.9989 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0030 | -0.0555 | 0.9983 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0017 | -0.0381 | 0.9991 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0017 | -0.0400 | 0.9990 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C | +0.002 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.008 |
| Manifold | D | +0.016 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |