Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.5559 | -1.3688 | 0.3229 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.3914 | -0.9824 | 0.5135 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5072 | -1.2455 | 0.3747 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.8190 | -2.3538 | 0.1044 |
| Relative Score | D- | +0.032 | -0.077 | -0.040 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0042 | -0.0672 | 0.9976 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0108 | -0.1098 | 0.9933 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.032 | +0.077 | +0.040 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2801 | -0.7180 | 0.6603 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2011 | -0.5461 | 0.7534 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5072 | -1.2455 | 0.3747 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.8190 | -2.3538 | 0.1044 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.002 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.002 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.000 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | A | -0.021 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.006 |