Will Matt Gaetz be confirmed as Trump's Attorney General?
  • 49
  • 1,382
  • $11,472,962
Matt Gaetz's confirmation as Trump's Attorney General depends on his appointment by June 30, 2025, or any subsequent official designation of the position. The first Trump candidate to be confirmed through a senate vote, recess appointment, or other official means will determine the outcome. Confirmation must occur between Issuance and December 31, 2026, for the market to resolve in favor of "Yes." A candidate is considered appointed if they meet this criteria. Resolution is contingent upon Trump officially designating Gaetz as Attorney General.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability17Nov241Dec8152229

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 85
  • $10,117,556

Will Matt Gaetz be confirmed as Attorney General by Dec 31, 2026? | Matt Gaetz

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0003
-0.0160
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0022
-0.0476
0.9988
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0160
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0102
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.001
+0.001
-0.001
  • Manifold
  • 20
  • 105
  • $2,504

Will Matt Gaetz be confirmed as Attorney General

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0002
-0.0140
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0159
-0.1350
0.9897
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0102
0.9999
Relative Score
A
-0.021
+0.048
+0.025
  • Polymarket
  • 83
  • 1,277
  • $1,352,903

Will Matt Gaetz be Trump's Attorney General?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0002
-0.0153
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0020
-0.0461
0.9989
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0121
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0269
0.9996
Relative Score
C-
+0.006
-0.015
-0.008
  • Overall
  • 49
  • 1,382
  • $11,472,962
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0002
-0.0151
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0067
-0.0762
0.9958
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0140
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0158
0.9998

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