Will Tulsi Gabbard be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?
  • 91
  • 6,168
  • $10,985,888
Tulsi Gabbard's nomination to be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence was subject to market speculation, with various resolution criteria. Some markets set a specific date for confirmation by December 31, 2026 or June 30, 2025, while others focused on the outcome before March 31, 2025. The resolution criteria varied, but most required Senate confirmation and excluded recess appointments. If Gabbard's nomination was formally withdrawn, it would immediately resolve to "No". A consensus of credible reporting could also be used as a basis for resolving the market.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability17Nov241Dec81522295Jan1219262Feb9

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 91
  • $5,723,479

Will Tulsi Gabbard be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by Dec 31, 2026? | Tulsi Gabbard

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0841
-0.3425
0.9258
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0950
-0.3685
0.9134
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0576
-0.2744
0.9536
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
Relative Score
B
-0.005
+0.013
+0.006
  • Manifold
  • 91
  • 433
  • $5,035

Will Tulsi Gabbard be confirmed as Intelligence Director?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.1028
-0.3867
0.9043
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.1080
-0.3985
0.8981
30 Days Before Close
C+
0.0484
-0.2483
0.9625
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0167
0.9999
Relative Score
C-
+0.007
-0.016
-0.008
  • Metaculus
  • 10
  • 2,229

Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)) | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0057
-0.0785
0.9967
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0217
-0.1592
0.9854
7 Days Before Close
B-
0.0328
-0.1998
0.9764
Relative Score
D-
+0.028
-0.115
-0.027
  • Polymarket
  • 89
  • 3,506
  • $5,257,374

Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0992
-0.3783
0.9085
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.1032
-0.3875
0.9039
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0729
-0.3147
0.9379
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0187
0.9998
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.003
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 91
  • 6,168
  • $10,985,888
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0730
-0.2965
0.9338
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0820
-0.3284
0.9252
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0596
-0.2792
0.9513
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0085
-0.0638
0.9940

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