Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.1988 | -0.5903 | 0.7791 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1649 | -0.5209 | 0.8255 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0322 | -0.1978 | 0.9769 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0039 | -0.0642 | 0.9978 |
| Relative Score | D | +0.024 | -0.050 | -0.033 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.3366 | -0.8680 | 0.5862 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2618 | -0.7168 | 0.6904 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0165 | -0.1377 | 0.9893 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0081 | -0.0946 | 0.9951 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.024 | +0.050 | +0.033 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2677 | -0.7291 | 0.6827 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2134 | -0.6189 | 0.7580 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0244 | -0.1678 | 0.9831 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0060 | -0.0794 | 0.9965 |
| Kalshi | D+ | +0.010 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
| Metaculus | A+ | -0.048 |