Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?
  • 375
  • 391
  • $2,732
This question asks if China will surpass 25 million confirmed COVID cases by the end of 2023. The resolution criteria is determined by Scott Alexander's judgment, as outlined in his future posts on Astral Codex Ten. For Metaculus, predictions are tracked within individual tracks, with no evaluation by Alexander. The related questions on Metaculus also explore similar scenarios, such as when China will end Zero-COVID and reach 250,000 confirmed COVID cases per day. These platforms all refer to the same time frame and outcome.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 374
  • 251
  • $2,732

14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.1681
-0.5276
0.8212
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.1632
-0.5175
0.8278
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0103
-0.1072
0.9937
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0232
-0.1651
0.9843
Relative Score
D-
+0.028
-0.066
-0.033
  • Metaculus
  • 374
  • 140

In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2211
-0.6352
0.7479
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.1241
-0.4343
0.8785
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0056
-0.0778
0.9967
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0040
-0.0651
0.9977
Relative Score
A
-0.028
+0.066
+0.033
  • Overall
  • 375
  • 391
  • $2,732
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.1946
-0.5814
0.7846
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.1436
-0.4759
0.8531
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0080
-0.0925
0.9952
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0136
-0.1151
0.9910

Similar Questions

Will the COVID lab leak theory be confirmed before January 2025?
  • 1,603
  • $690,321
Manifold
B-
-0.004
Polymarket
C
+0.004
Will the World Health Organization declare H5N1 a pandemic before January 2025?
  • 1,442
  • $1,143,346
Kalshi
C
+0.000
Polymarket
C+
-0.000
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2023?
  • 578
  • $706
Manifold
C+
-0.000
Metaculus
C
+0.000
Will the CDC identify a new COVID variant of concern before January 2025?
  • 53
  • $33,193
Kalshi
A-
-0.012
Manifold
D+
+0.012
Will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections before 2025?
  • 215
  • $11
Manifold
D
+0.021
Metaculus
A
-0.021
Will the CDC identify a new COVID variant of concern before January 2024?
  • 5
  • $43,730
Kalshi
A-
-0.013
Manifold
D+
+0.013