Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?
  • 366
  • 1,935
  • $921,924
This question explores whether cannabis will lose its classification as a Schedule I drug under federal law before 2025. The outcome is determined by whether marijuana is officially reclassified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US before January 1, 2025. If later reclassified as a schedule I drug, the answer remains Yes. The resolution criteria for this question include any official announcement from the US government and credible reporting by reputable sources, with a deadline of December 31, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024JulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 367
  • 584
  • $7,895

Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? [ACX 2024]

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3711
-0.9396
0.5399
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.1198
-0.4248
0.8838
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0254
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.005
+0.001
  • Metaculus
  • 366
  • 554

Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4900
-1.2039
0.3939
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.1661
-0.5236
0.8238
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0172
-0.1406
0.9888
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0060
-0.0803
0.9965
Relative Score
F
+0.037
-0.107
-0.041
  • Polymarket
  • 351
  • 797
  • $914,029

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.1936
-0.5798
0.7863
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.1375
-0.4634
0.8615
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0030
-0.0566
0.9983
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0055
1.0000
Relative Score
D-
+0.027
-0.057
-0.034
  • Overall
  • 366
  • 1,935
  • $921,924
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.3516
-0.9078
0.5734
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.1412
-0.4706
0.8564
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0070
-0.0742
0.9956
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0020
-0.0320
0.9988

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