Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0081 | -0.0943 | 0.9951 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0052 | -0.0749 | 0.9970 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0202 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | A- | -0.012 | +0.056 | +0.010 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0256 | -0.1744 | 0.9823 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0293 | -0.1876 | 0.9794 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0087 | -0.0980 | 0.9947 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | D+ | +0.012 | -0.046 | -0.010 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0121 | -0.1165 | 0.9924 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0152 | -0.1317 | 0.9902 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0207 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0131 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.003 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0153 | -0.1284 | 0.9900 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0166 | -0.1314 | 0.9889 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0032 | -0.0463 | 0.9981 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0111 | 0.9999 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.007 |
| Metaculus | D- | +0.028 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
| Kalshi | A- | -0.011 |
| Manifold | F | +0.037 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |