Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.9409 | -3.5066 | 0.0309 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.7795 | -2.1447 | 0.1315 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.9604 | -3.9120 | 0.0204 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.3844 | -0.9676 | 0.5226 |
| Relative Score | D | +0.019 | -0.044 | -0.023 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4308 | -1.0681 | 0.4639 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4575 | -1.1283 | 0.4315 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.5625 | -1.3863 | 0.3162 |
| Relative Score | D- | +0.033 | -0.077 | -0.038 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2352 | -0.6636 | 0.7280 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2645 | -0.7221 | 0.6866 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.2070 | -0.6070 | 0.7676 |
| Relative Score | S | -0.139 | +0.289 | +0.186 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.5356 | -1.7461 | 0.4076 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.5005 | -1.3317 | 0.4165 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.9604 | -3.9120 | 0.0204 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.3846 | -0.9869 | 0.5355 |
| Kalshi | B- | -0.002 |
| Manifold | B | -0.005 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.195 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.003 |
| Kalshi | A+ | -0.049 |
| Manifold | F | +0.063 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.046 |
| Polymarket | A+ | -0.044 |