Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.1444 | -0.4780 | 0.8526 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.1390 | -0.4665 | 0.8596 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0484 | -0.2485 | 0.9624 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0121 | -0.1165 | 0.9924 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | +0.002 | +0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0146 | -0.1289 | 0.9907 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0278 | -0.1824 | 0.9806 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0477 | -0.2466 | 0.9631 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0125 | -0.1184 | 0.9922 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.003 | -0.012 | -0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0156 | -0.1335 | 0.9899 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0235 | -0.1663 | 0.9840 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0729 | -0.3147 | 0.9379 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0090 | -0.0998 | 0.9945 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.002 | -0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0582 | -0.2468 | 0.9444 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0634 | -0.2717 | 0.9414 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0563 | -0.2699 | 0.9545 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0112 | -0.1116 | 0.9931 |
| Kalshi | B- | -0.002 |
| Manifold | B | -0.005 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.195 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.003 |