Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0101 | -0.1058 | 0.9938 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0017 | -0.0421 | 0.9991 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0082 | -0.0952 | 0.9950 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0078 | -0.0923 | 0.9954 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.000 | +0.000 | -0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0130 | -0.1211 | 0.9918 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A- | 0.0081 | -0.0946 | 0.9951 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0042 | -0.0672 | 0.9976 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0064 | -0.0836 | 0.9962 |
| Relative Score | A- | -0.011 | +0.042 | +0.009 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0289 | -0.1863 | 0.9797 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0286 | -0.1853 | 0.9799 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0090 | -0.0998 | 0.9945 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0077 | -0.0916 | 0.9954 |
| Relative Score | D+ | +0.011 | -0.041 | -0.009 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0173 | -0.1378 | 0.9884 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0128 | -0.1073 | 0.9914 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0072 | -0.0874 | 0.9957 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0073 | -0.0892 | 0.9957 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C | +0.002 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.008 |
| Manifold | D | +0.016 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |