Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?
  • 366
  • 610
  • $720
This question resolves as Yes if Mike Johnson continuously holds the position of Speaker of the US House of Representatives until the end of 2024. It resolves as No if he is no longer in this role at any point in 2024 due to reasons such as resignation, retirement, election defeat, loss of majority party status, or expulsion. The outcome will be determined by credible sources. Mike Johnson, a Republican representative from Louisiana, was elected as Speaker in late October 2023 and is set to serve through early January 2025. His appointment reflects the political climate and anticipation for the House's direction under his leadership.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024JulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 367
  • 133
  • $720

[ACX 2024] Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0131
-0.1216
0.9918
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0245
-0.1702
0.9832
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0163
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0133
0.9999
Relative Score
B
-0.006
+0.011
+0.007
  • Metaculus
  • 363
  • 477

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0115
-0.1134
0.9929
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0289
-0.1865
0.9796
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0325
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0289
0.9996
Relative Score
C-
+0.006
-0.011
-0.007
  • Overall
  • 366
  • 610
  • $720
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0123
-0.1175
0.9923
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0267
-0.1783
0.9814
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0244
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0211
0.9997

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