Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0032 | -0.0586 | 0.9982 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0190 | -0.1485 | 0.9874 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0041 | -0.0660 | 0.9977 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0773 | -0.3259 | 0.9331 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.034 | +0.088 | +0.038 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0097 | -0.1035 | 0.9941 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2103 | -0.6136 | 0.7630 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0147 | -0.1291 | 0.9906 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0340 | -0.2039 | 0.9754 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.039 | -0.109 | -0.043 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0093 | -0.1015 | 0.9943 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0144 | -0.1279 | 0.9908 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0155 | -0.1330 | 0.9900 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0812 | -0.3355 | 0.9289 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | +0.002 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0074 | -0.0878 | 0.9955 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0813 | -0.2966 | 0.9138 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0114 | -0.1094 | 0.9928 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0642 | -0.2884 | 0.9458 |
| Kalshi | A- | -0.011 |
| Manifold | F | +0.037 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |
| Manifold | F | +0.060 |
| Metaculus | A+ | -0.061 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.007 |