Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.1600 | -0.5108 | 0.8321 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2614 | -0.7159 | 0.6910 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2025 | -0.5978 | 0.7740 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0441 | -0.2357 | 0.9664 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.021 | +0.003 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2582 | -0.7095 | 0.6955 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2605 | -0.7142 | 0.6922 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.1195 | -0.4242 | 0.8842 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0095 | 1.0000 |
| Relative Score | D | +0.017 | -0.063 | -0.015 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.1777 | -0.5473 | 0.8082 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2461 | -0.6854 | 0.7126 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.1008 | -0.3820 | 0.9067 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0583 | -0.2764 | 0.9529 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.020 | +0.074 | +0.018 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.1986 | -0.5892 | 0.7786 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2560 | -0.7051 | 0.6986 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.1409 | -0.4680 | 0.8549 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0342 | -0.1739 | 0.9731 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.002 |
| Manifold | D- | +0.032 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.025 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.034 |
| Manifold | F | +0.039 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C | +0.002 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Kalshi | A- | -0.011 |
| Manifold | F | +0.037 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |