Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0034 | -0.0598 | 0.9981 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0112 | 0.9999 |
| 30 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.015 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0231 | 0.9997 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0226 | 0.9997 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0214 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0214 | 0.9998 |
| Relative Score | B- | -0.004 | +0.026 | +0.003 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0042 | -0.0672 | 0.9976 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0031 | -0.0574 | 0.9983 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0131 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0146 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.003 | -0.020 | -0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0027 | -0.0500 | 0.9985 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0012 | -0.0304 | 0.9993 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0149 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0154 | 0.9999 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.017 |
| Manifold | A | -0.021 |
| Polymarket | D- | +0.029 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C | +0.002 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |