Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2809 | -0.7550 | 0.6635 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2058 | -0.6046 | 0.7693 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0202 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.075 | -0.158 | -0.100 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0491 | -0.2504 | 0.9618 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.1443 | -0.4779 | 0.8527 |
| 30 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0098 | 1.0000 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0084 | 1.0000 |
| Relative Score | C- | +0.005 | -0.009 | -0.008 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0107 | -0.1090 | 0.9934 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.1065 | -0.3951 | 0.8999 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0236 | 0.9997 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0214 | 0.9998 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.037 | +0.085 | +0.045 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.1135 | -0.3715 | 0.8729 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.1522 | -0.4925 | 0.8406 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0179 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0133 | 0.9999 |
| Kalshi | B- | -0.004 |
| Manifold | C | +0.004 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |
| Manifold | D | +0.023 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.023 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |