Will Cillian Murphy win Best Actor at the 2024 Oscars?
  • 204
  • 242
  • $181,319
If Cillian Murphy wins Best Actor at the 96th Academy Awards, then this outcome is considered true. The market resolves to "Yes" if he wins the Academy Award for Best Actor in a Leading Role. A tie will resolve in favor of the actor whose last name comes first in alphabetical order. If no winner is declared by December 31, 2024, or if Cillian Murphy is not officially nominated, the market resolves to "No". The primary resolution source is official information from Academy Awards and AMPAS.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilitySep2023OctNovDecJan2024FebMar

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 205
  • $71,929

Will Cillian Murphy win Best Actor at the Oscars? | Cillian Murphy :: Oppenheimer

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2500
-0.6931
0.7071
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.1839
-0.5602
0.7996
30 Days Before Close
C
0.1156
-0.4155
0.8890
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0100
-0.1054
0.9939
Relative Score
C
+0.000
+0.001
-0.000
  • Manifold
  • 157
  • 150
  • $866

Who will win the Best Actor in a Leading Role Oscar at the 2024 Academy Awards? | Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2124
-0.6179
0.7601
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.1563
-0.5031
0.8370
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0758
-0.3219
0.9348
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0123
-0.1174
0.9923
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.001
+0.001
  • Polymarket
  • 53
  • 92
  • $108,524

Will Cillian Murphy win the Oscar for Best Actor?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.1056
-0.3930
0.9010
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0617
-0.2856
0.9495
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0992
-0.3783
0.9085
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0100
-0.1054
0.9939
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.001
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 204
  • 242
  • $181,319
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.1894
-0.5680
0.7894
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.1340
-0.4496
0.8620
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0969
-0.3719
0.9108
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0108
-0.1094
0.9934

Similar Questions

Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 1,027
  • $547,055
Kalshi
C
+0.002
Manifold
C
+0.005
Polymarket
C
+0.000
Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 934
  • $388,374
Kalshi
A
-0.019
Manifold
C-
+0.009
Polymarket
D+
+0.014
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 529
  • $671,269
Kalshi
A
-0.024
Manifold
F
+0.042
Polymarket
C+
-0.000
Will Oppenheimer win Best Picture at the 2024 Oscars?
  • 390
  • $274,653
Kalshi
C+
-0.002
Manifold
C-
+0.005
Polymarket
C+
-0.001
Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 315
  • $425,865
Kalshi
C-
+0.005
Manifold
C
+0.000
Polymarket
C+
-0.002
Will Anora will win the most awards at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 336
  • $376,276
Kalshi
D
+0.019
Manifold
D-
+0.033
Polymarket
S
-0.139