Will Don Davis (D) win North Carolina's 1st congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 231
  • 12
  • $17,886
This market resolves to Yes if a member of the Democratic Party wins the race. Markets like this one consider Don Davis's (D) win in 2024 as likely if he wins the seat by more than 75% margin over his Republican opponent. The outcome is determined by the vote share difference between the winner and the closest Republican challenger. If the Democrat wins by less than 25 points, they are considered unlikely to win the seat. Markets like this one assume Don Davis (D) will retain the seat unless significant external events occur that alter voter sentiment in his favor or against him.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $16,547

Will Democratic win the House race for NC-1? | :: Or another Democrat

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0388
-0.2194
0.9712
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0019
-0.0450
0.9989
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0664
-0.2980
0.9447
Relative Score
A
-0.022
+0.051
+0.024
  • Manifold
  • 232
  • 12
  • $1,339

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | NC-01 Don Davis (D) - Won by 4.74% - Full Toss-up | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.1274
-0.4414
0.8744
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.1535
-0.4971
0.8407
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.1546
-0.4996
0.8392
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.1546
-0.4996
0.8392
Relative Score
D
+0.022
-0.051
-0.024
  • Overall
  • 231
  • 12
  • $17,886
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0831
-0.3304
0.9228
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0777
-0.2710
0.9198
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0775
-0.2599
0.9195
7 Days Before Close
C
0.1105
-0.3988
0.8919

Similar Questions

Will Mike Garcia (R) win California's 27th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 171
  • $507,921
Kalshi
B
-0.006
Manifold
F
+0.038
Polymarket
A
-0.038
Will Don Bacon (R) win Nebraska's 2nd congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 149
  • $313,702
Kalshi
C-
+0.009
Manifold
F
+0.102
Polymarket
S
-0.114
Will David Schweikert (R) win Arizona's 1st congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 87
  • $37,267
Kalshi
C
+0.004
Manifold
A-
-0.012
Polymarket
D+
+0.014
Will Ken Calvert (R) win California's 41st congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 27
  • $20,771
Kalshi
C-
+0.007
Manifold
B
-0.007
Will Jared Golden (D) win Maine's 2nd congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 19
  • $28,109
Kalshi
B
-0.006
Manifold
C-
+0.006
Will Matt Cartwright (D) win Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 19
  • $21,829
Kalshi
C+
-0.002
Manifold
C
+0.002